Former United States Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger has denoted Beijing’s recent aggressive behavior towards the Philippines in the South China Sea as a “dress rehearsal” for a possible invasion of Taiwan. While speaking at a Heritage Foundation forum in Washington, Pottinger explained that Beijing’s hostile actions, particularly the violent blocking of a Philippine resupply mission on June 17, were designed to create a sense of helplessness and to undermine the faith in the United States’ support for the Philippines and, by extension, Taiwan.
Pottinger specifically referenced an incident near the Second Thomas Shoal, where Chinese coast guard personnel were observed ramming and boarding Philippine boats, as well as menacing Filipino sailors with knives and axes. He emphasized that this event was intended to portray the U.S. as ineffective in the disputed region and to convey a threatening message about Taiwan’s predicament. He highlighted that even though the Philippines is a mutual defense treaty ally of the U.S., Taiwan does not possess the same status.
The former National Security Advisor asserted that Beijing’s actions should prompt a mutual defense treaty response between the U.S. and the Philippines. However, he clarified that this does not necessarily indicate an impending conflict but rather underscored the need to recognize the seriousness of the situation and enforce more substantial consequences.
Pottinger also discussed the presence of U.S. troops in Taiwan, stressing the significance of enhancing the quality of planning and training between both parties, as well as engaging regional partners such as Japan and Australia.
The heightened tensions have been further compounded by the United States and its allied navies’ plan to simulate foiling a Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan during the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise by sinking a 40,000-tonne ship. This exercise, involving over 25,000 personnel, 40 warships, three submarines, and more than 150 aircraft from various countries, aims to demonstrate readiness in multi-domain warfare and defense.
In addition to these military operations, concerns have emerged regarding the potential extradition of Taiwanese individuals to China while traveling in nations closely aligned with Beijing. This arises following China’s announcement of new judicial guidelines targeting Taiwanese independence advocates, heightening the risk of extradition from countries like Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Djibouti. As a result, Taiwan has raised its travel alert for China, Hong Kong, and Macau.
Furthermore, the Ministry of National Defense has declared the closure of airspace surrounding Taiwan’s major airports during the Han Kuang military exercises, scheduled from July 22 to 26.
On a separate front, Taiwan and Thailand have inked an agreement to enhance and safeguard bilateral investment and trade, signifying another step in bolstering economic ties between the two nations.
In conclusion, the recent developments in the South China Sea and their implications for Taiwan’s security underscore the mounting tensions in the region, warranting a coordinated response from allies and heightened vigilance. The array of military exercises and agreements emphasizes the need for strategic partnerships and diplomatic efforts to uphold stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region.
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